The Economic Impact of Project 2025: Should You Be Worried?
To put it simply, yes you should. Here's why.
Unless you work in public policy, you probably don’t follow think tanks. But earlier this year, The Heritage Foundation , a research institution with far-right values, started making headlines after it published Project 2025. This doctrine is essentially a blueprint for Donald Trump to continue amassing power and furthering his authoritarian agenda by stripping away equal rights from almost every marginalized community. “A number of its recommendations rely on support from the executive branch and from Congress,” states the American Civil Liberties Union. “Many other initiatives are outright unconstitutional.”
Trump is no stranger to unconstitutional actions. After attempting to overturn the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election on January 6, 2021, he posted a call to terminate the United States Constitution on Truth Social. And while he initially claimed he has not read Project 2025 and has no direct involvement with it, he recently acknowledged that it will lay the groundwork for his second term and praised The Heritage Foundation, stating “They're going to lay the groundwork and detail plans for exactly what our movement will do.” If he is elected, it’s clear Trump will defer to the doctrine for his policy agenda.
As noted, Project 2025 is long and complicated, with plans for many different policy areas. But if you’re troubled about what it will mean for the economy, you’re correct to take this mindset. Trump loves to boast about the strength of his economy, despite considerable evidence that economic growth has been stronger under President Joe Biden. Recently, the nonpartisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities conducted a detailed analysis on the economic impact of Project 2025 reporting that it will increase poverty and hardship for millions of people, eliminating health coverage and food assistance while driving up the uninsured rate.
Other experts believe that the extreme right-wing policies outlined in Project 2025 will wreak havoc on the economy as a whole. Forbes Contributor Jeff Raikes, a longtime tech executive who served as CEO of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, describes the report as a “blueprint for business disaster,” noting that Trump’s quest to end American democracy is likely to eliminate the economic prosperity that comes with it. He predicts that “the policies it advocates will very likely plunge the American economy into a death spiral.”
What would this ‘death spiral’ look like? As it turns out, the economic implications of Project 2025 stand to go far beyond taking away health coverage and food assistance.
A report from the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress concludes that it would severely raise taxes on America’s working class while providing corporate welfare to its wealthiest. It states that Trump could accomplish this by:
“Shifting taxes from the wealthy to the middle-class by moving to just two income tax rates: a 15% tax rate for people earning up to about $168,000 and a 30% tax rate for people earning above that (see page 696). This would force many middle-class families to pay thousands of dollars more in tax payments. It would also take away “most deductions, credits, and exclusions” (see page 696), and does not specify that it would keep provisions like the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the Child Tax Credit (CTC) that overwhelmingly benefit low- and middle-class families.”
The congressional committee also notes the policies outlined in Project 2025 could make fewer workers eligible for overtime pay and reduce the protections that shield child workers from hazardous labor conditions. Additionally, the many corporations that oppose unions would have an even easier time preventing workers from organizing, as detailed in a statement from the AFL-CIO.
To summarize, just about everyone other than America's wealthiest economic classes would be negatively impacted by the policies detailed in Project 2025. Since Trump’s first term included steep tax cuts for corporations and no initiatives that actually helped the middle class, doubling down on anti-worker policies is certainly right out of his playbook. But this time, that playbook actually has a name and it has been published widely on the internet.
Trump and his loyalists aren’t even hiding their plans to subvert American democracy and establish a blatantly authoritarian agenda. Many studies have clearly shown that democracy fosters economic growth and helps nations flourish. If Trump is able to advance his plan for authoritarian rule in the United States, it is clear we can expect higher taxes, higher food costs and much harsher working conditions.